School Event

Political Risk Analysis in Africa

Political Risk Analysis in Africa.

Course Description

Africa is a land of opportunities and risks. For the consulting engineer who is used to assessing technical, financial and market risks, the ‘political risk’ aspect of a project often does not receive the attention it deserves. A credit rating by one of the ratings agencies such as Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s is an assessment of a country’s economic abilities to meet its debt and is not a substitute for specific political risks ranging from trade union strike, to a new government, to corruption risk.

This two-day course is designed for participants to understand and apply political risk analysis principles and methodologies to the sub-Saharan African political context.  It will provide the busy consultant a succinct and to the point introduction to what political risks are and how to systematically research and analyze and treat each risk.

While the course is designed to be hands-on and is workshop focused -it is not anecdotal and superficial. It is foundation edupon the following specialist disciplines: Enterprise Risk Management, political science, sociology, anthropology, history and peace and conflict studies.

With a balance of local context and practical know-how, students will be equipped to provide judicious and systematic political analysis to their project feasibility studies. 

Course Objective

To give you the principles, research methodology and political context to enable you to critically and systematically think about, mitigate against, set-up scenario planning for, and respond to political risks in Africa so you can incorporate Political Risk analysis into your Enterprise Risk Management framework.

Learning outcomes

·         By the end of the course, you will be able to:

·         Assess relevant stakeholders ‘political risk appetite

·         Communicate with stakeholders and get consensus on client’s political risk appetite.

·         Understand and apply the framework principle of political risk analysis

·         Find reliable political risk data

·         Critically assess the political risk data

·         Assess and evaluate the impact and probability of different political risks and prioritizing them accordingly

Course Outline

Day 1 Principles of Political Risk Analysis

I. What is political risk?

II.Workshop question:

                        a. Infrastructure project in South Sudan

                        b. Power project in Liberia

III.How do we understand our own organization’s political risk appetite?

IV.How do we identify political risks?

V.How do we analyze political risks?

VI. Mitigation measures and response

Workshop Question

1. Your firm is a UK owned, non-listed engineering consulting firm. You’ve received a request to put together a feasibility study for a $ 50 million engineering and civils works. The client is a construction subsidiary of China National Petroleum Company and the project site is in Unity State, South Sudan. 

Your task is to put together a comprehensive 5 year (duration of the project) political risk analysis and mitigation measures as a part of the feasibility study.

2. You are a South African financial institution. You have received an application to provide a facility for a project to refurbish and install

Meet the Facilitator: Steven Kuo

Steven is formally the Southern Africa political risk analyst for Control Risks, the world’s largest risk management consultancy. He has provided political risk consultancy to Fortune 500 companies across Africa from Kenya to South Africa and carried out fieldwork from Liberia to South Sudan. Completing his PhD in International Relations at the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of St. Andrews in Scotland and having lectured in Europe, Africa and China, he is a leading academic expert on Africa’s peace and security as well as China’s role in it.

This event has been cancelled